Rebounding Housing Market Will Bring More Kids to LES

Home Sales Drive School Enrollment 

Dr. Kreutzer admits he “is not an expert” on the relationship between home values, home sales, neighborhood schools and enrollment. (SCTF Public Hearing, October 21, 2013) 

Many others have studied the subject extensively: 

Research shows the housing market consistently rewards high test scores and low student-teacher ratios (class size) with high value home sale transactions. (Source: Brasington, 1999) 

Research shows home buyers are willing to pay a premium of up to 14% for proximity to a high quality school. (Source: Downes and Black, 2002) 

Research shows a 5% increase in test scores leads to a willingness to pay 2.1% more for homes in areas associated with the scores. (Source: Black, 1999) 

Research shows demand for housing is strongest in those districts that can support additional enrollment without sacrificing quality. (Source: Bradley, Case and Mayer, 1998) 

How will the closure of LES – the highest-performing elementary school in our district - impact home values in the area? 

Rebounding Housing Market = More School-Age Children 

A recent statistical analysis of KLSD home sales and school enrollment identifies a very strong causal relationship (Pearson Correlation =.83 in statistical terms) between the rate of home sales and the rate of school enrollment. 

The Great Recession decimated the Katonah-Lewisboro housing market and doubled the rate of enrollment decline in KLSD elementary schools. 

According to the 2013 2nd Quarter Residential Real Estate Sales Report for Westchester County, the housing market in Northern Westchester is up 24% vs. the same period in 2012. (Source: Hudson Gateway Association of Realtors, July 2013) 

Westchester realtors report prospective home sellers are responding to improved market conditions and historically low interest rates by putting their homes on the market. (Source: HGAR, July 2103) 

One major consequence of the faster pace of home sales is that the number of available properties for sale has improved, returning the market to “a more classic supply and demand condition [with] new listings barely keep[ing] up with sales.” (Source: HGAR, July 2013) 

How will we accommodate the children living in these homes if our elementary school classrooms are 98% full due to the closure of LES?

 For more information, data, research and documentation, please visit www.saveKLschools.org and please join us on Facebook at www.facebook.com/group/saveKLschools