K-L Demographer Predicts Further Enrollment Decline

Dr. Richard Grip, the demographer hired by the Katonah-Lewisboro school district, came to Thursday's school board meeting to present an updated study that he did for future student enrollment. His findings, which have 5-year and 10-year projections, show that the trend of declining enrollment will continue.

The presentation was made as district officials are considering whether to close Lewisboro Elementary School (LES), with falling enrollment cited as a reason.

Grip did his initial study in 2012 and at the time only had data up to the 2011-12 school year. According to his presentation, the error percentages between his projections for 2012-13 and 2013-14 versus the actual enrollment numbers were off by less than one percent.

Grip, who is from Statistical Forecasting, LLC, made his predictions using a method called cohort survival ratio (CSR), which uses carryover of students from one grade to the next. He came out with a 5-year average for CSR and a 6-year average for it.

The demographer predicts that district-wide enrollment will go from nearly 3,200 in 2014-15 to 2018-19 levels of 2,635 for the 5-year CSR and 2,650 for the 6-year version. For the 2023-24 school year, which is a decade from now, he predicts enrollment of 2,172 for the 5-year CSR and 2,181 for the 6-year CSR.

For elementary school enrollment, Grip predicts continued drops. For 2013-14, all four elementary buildings have enrollment of more than 300 students, but none would have this by 2018-19. Three of the four schools would be well into the 200's range, while Meadow Pond Elementary School would be down to just 186. By 2023-24 the levels would either by slightly up or slightly down from the 5-year mark.

Grip also looked at the possibility of the school district adding full-day kindergarten, and felt that there would not be much difference between projections for it and the half-day model.

The study also included the CSR method for birth to kindergarten. Grip's data for births for the district's attendance area, which goes back to 2002, shows numbers were above 200 in the early 2000s before declining over the years. In 2009, 2010 and 2011, they were at respective levels of 117, 138 and 114. Grip also noted that preliminary data for 2012 shows just 95 births.

Grip also noted the gain that The CSR for birth to kindergarten showed, which indicates movement into the district after birth.

A major trend that Grip pointed out in his findings is the change in the age distribution. A comparison of age pyramid charts - they were for 1990, 2000 and a period of 2007-11 - depicts a declining proportion of younger adults living in the district. Grip sees this as a significant factor in the enrollment trend.

Additionally, Grip looked at home occupancy. The current level is around 92 percent, but Grip did a scenario in which the level returns to what it was in 2000, which was 94.5 percent, or having 179 additional occupied units. He used a student yield figure of 0.62, which would mean an increase of 111 students. If they were divided evenly by 13 grades this would mean 18.5 students per grade and, when divided by four elementary schools, would be about 2 children per grade and per school. In a 3-elementary school scenario this would be around 2.67, which Grip felt is not much of a difference.

Additionally, Grip feels more confident in the 5-year projection than in the 10-year version. For example, he noted more uncertainly going further 

School board members asked questions similar to what skeptical residents have addressed. 

Grip, when asked a question by board President Charles Day, noted that the CSR method would pick up arrival into the district, such as moving in. He was also confident in the CSR for short-term forecasting.

Day also brought up the possibility of enrollment going up again, to which Grip responded by explaining that a change in the age structure would help. Addressing the question of housing movement, Grip felt that it does not happen quickly. 

Grip, additionally, addressed the issue of home sales and district migration and felt there was no correlation based on an analysis of data from 2000-05, when enrollment was higher.

Responding to another question from Day, which concerned a kid-per-house metric of 0.62, Grip brought up a scenario in which 1 is the number, which means adding about 179 students, and in using an historical school level distribution where about 70 percent of them (129) are in elementary schools. Divided evenly by the elementary grades they would be about 21 more kids per grade and seven when divided by just three schools.

Grip emphasized the age distribution's role, stating at one point this is not “real rocket science.” This distribution means a lower birth level, according to Grip, who noted it has happened elsewhere that he has studied. Grip suggested that ways to deal with it would be to bring more people in or to cut home pricing.

Even with a higher birth rate, using a 194-child level, Grip predicted that there would still be a loss of more than 500 students in a 5-year scenario.

Board member Janet Harckham, who chairs the School Closure Task Force, asked Grip about what would change the projection. He replied by saying it would almost mean having to swap out the community for another one, noting the age structure.

Board Vice President Majorie Schiff, who is also on the task force, brought up local concerns about using the past to predict the future, and about the community not being static. Grip replied by backing the soundness of the methodology. 

The district's website has links to both Grip's presentation and his full report.

Residents Speak (Several Once More) to Oppose Closure

Grip's findings were met with skepticism from the audience during the public comment portion of the meeting that follow his presentation.

Chris Sommers noted that enrollment is cyclical and felt that the CSR is not relevant given a low number of students lost through it. Instead he felt there should be analysis for likely kindergarten enrollment.

Lynne Geaney, addressing Grip's track record for the district, felt that two years of accurate projections are not an indicator for future enrollment. She noted examples of district history, such as a 1998 report that was accurate at first but was notably off further out.

Other residents came not to address Grip's study in particular but to voice general concerns again, such as a fear that the process is being rushed or of negative impact to children.

“It is the most risky choice," said Carmen Delessio, who warned about the fiscal impact in the future.

Adrienne Kenny and Elizabeth Stabile gave a joint statement about their outreach to local businesses about the issue. They got signatures from 44 owners of local businesses who are against the closure, with business harm being a concern.

Laurie Scinicariello and Emily Wein, the co-presidents for the LES PTA, gave their own statement outlining what should be done regarding a closure. It included not using short-term savings as a reason, noting the tax-cap environment makes reopening the school a difficulty; having a closure at a time that is right, noting the cyclical demographic nature; consideration of the effect on the community.

Tom Christopher mentioned posters done by local school alumni, which indicate the closing of LES and Christmas. They show photos of Day and Harckham alongside a mock-up of LES with a chain-link fence indicating it's closed, along with a girl. Christopher, who opposes the closure, likened himself to the ghost of Christmas future.

The next time the potential LES closure will be brought up is at the school board's Dec. 5 meeting. According to Harckham, a draft of a plan will be the topic. According to a recent timeline presented to the public, the school board is slated to take a vote on Dec. 19 that would allow for the process to continue. A closure would then be subject to a January public hearing before there is a board vote on Jan. 23 for the closure itself.